Printing and Direct Mail: We're in a Growth Industry! Or you can't believe everything you hear.

Doom-and-gloomers say that print is doomed. Direct mail is a goner. What started with the ancient papyrus-wielding scribes, grew exponentially when Gutenberg discovered offset printing, is finished. Caput. Stick a fork in it, they say. It's done.

They name the internet as the one singlehanded instrument of destruction. They cite video-game-generation short-attention spans as an accomplice and falling postal usage as evidence. Those of us in the putting-ink-on-paper business might as well be selling buggy whips, they say. We're done for.

But whoa, there, guys. Not so fast!

A leading marketing research firm, the Winterberry Group, has dramatic evidence that flies in the face of these print pariahs.

Winterberry predicts that direct mail spending will grow by 5.8% this year; while direct response print will increase by a not so robust, but still sweet 2%. But Digital and the variable data printing it provides—will increase by a whopping 14%.

14%! Wow! But let's back up a bit.

2008 to 2009 was catastrophic for print-based marketers. Printing and direct mail volume declined by a staggering 16.7% in that one 12-month period, ending up the year at $43.8B sales volume. But by mid-year 2010, things were turning around. From July to December, volumes bounced back by 3.1% producing an EOY value of $45.2B.

Winterberry predicts that all signs are for 2011 to continue the rebound, increasing by 5.8% and coming in with an EOY value of $47.8B—$4B higher than we were just 2 ugly years ago. Not bad for an industry on its deathbed, eh?

So what's going on?

The great recession seems to be easing. People are spending more again, and many marketers are returning to the mail. Furthermore, the long-touted email revolution isn't panning out quite the way it had been expected to. So marketers are abandoning the electronic world for good old fashioned print again.

At the same time, USPS-enforced regulations to keep lists cleaner, and greater acceptance of detailed response analytics mean that mailers can mail smaller, but more accurately and with more highly targeted campaigns. Hence, they should see better ROI for their efforts.

The USPS is doing its part by not seeking huge postal increases for 2011.

Digital is the big winner because as marketers mail with greater specificity, their volumes drop. And as you—savvy marketer that you are—probably knows, digital is more economical at lower run lengths. Added to the digital difference is digital's ability to create custom pieces for each recipient, thus targeting the messaging even more tightly.

So before you believe the doom-and-gloomers who are predicting the end of the print world, please consider that we are in rapidly evolving times. It's happened before and it is happening today.

We're at the conflux of technological availability and economic necessity. Printing and marketing is changing; it is not going away.

What Goes Around Comes Around, "Snail mail" gains new creds

Just a few years ago, when online marketing was still a twinkle in the eyes of the marketing technocrats, those same overly ambitious techies prematurely announced, “Direct Mail is Dead.” 

And while the premature announcement of DM’s demise didn’t make the cover of Time Magazine, it nonetheless shook the marketing community to its roots. 

Direct mail (DM), the long-time savior of all things marketing, became denigrated as “Snail Mail” — slower than the electron-fast e-mail marketing that was rising to prominence.  Fast was in; slow was out.  Shotguns were in; rifles were out. 

Well, that view is so... yesterday.

Today, the brilliant target-ability of direct mail has proven its worth as a tried-and-true in-the-trenches marketing success story.  Sure, DM has taken a hit from email and its electronic cousins.  Mail volume has dropped dramatically over the last 10 years, hurting both the USPS and providers of mailing services.

But consider this:  your letter/postcard/catalog/package now shares the mailbox with far fewer competing pieces of mail.  That means your recipient has longer to ponder your offer than ever before.  You get more “eyeball time,” and because there is less competition, response rates are rising again.

One retailer analyzed side-by-side marketing performance of three media:  DM, email and in-store promos.  With response up 150% from the previous year with no significant change in strategy, DM was the hands down winner over flashier new media.

So here’s the headline:  Snail mail, the so-called “obsolete marketing media,” is outperforming digital, including social media.  Who’d a-thunk it just 10 years ago?  DM is leading the new marketing wave.

The Past is Prologue.

Word.

How Do We Fare on the Environmental Report Card?

Is “going green” important? You betcha! After all, we only have one world and we need to protect it. All of it.

For the record, I come down firmly in the green camp. My hybrid Prius gets 50+ mph; at home, our lights at home are all low-energy fluorescent and LCD (which, by the way, cut 30% off our electric bill immediately); we had the first recycle bin on the block; and our yard is certified by National Wildlife. Eighteen months ago we installed a new Energy Star furnace and air conditioner.

Just yesterday we got our electric bill. Last month we started unplugging appliances when not in use to see if we could cut down on our electric bill and help our carbon footprint. The answer: we saved another 5% by unplugging the "vampire power" suckers. We're so far ahead of the neighbors, we're talking about selling carbon footprint offset vouchers to them.

At the office, things are a bit dicier.

Last year I convinced the building association to stop using dangerous chemicals to melt ice and snow. I’m still trying to get them to consider a green, living roof which will help clean the air, control water runoff, and reduce the building’s carbon footprint. After all, the roof has to be replaced in 5 years; I think we need to start thinking about options. The lifespan of a “regular” flat commercial roof is 10-15 years; the lifespan of a green roof can be 50. So it would make both economic and environmental sense, I proffer futilely, to the sound of no hands clapping.

Where I have more control, we’re doing a bit better. We do all the obvious environmentally sound practices. We use FSC and recycled papers as much as possible. We have a company-wide auto CAFÉ of over 35mph. We recycle what we can and we don’t dump chemicals into the water. We have set-back thermostats, so we moderate climate control during off-peak hours, and all our equipment is as energy efficient as current technology allows.

But Paul & Partners is still in Direct Marketing, which “harvests”100 million trees each year to produce the paper for 100 billion pieces of mail. Yes, DM leaves a huge footprint on our environment.
The USPS, God Bless ‘em, keeps coming up with truly brilliant methods to help the DM industry go greener.

Remember the 90% postage hike last summer that left magazine mailers gasping? In its wake, dozens of magazines folded. Viola! Just like that, the USPS helped save thousands of endangered trees, and made the planet a bit greener.

The catalog corollary is that a number of successful catalogs including those for Timberland, Bloomingdales and Neiman Marcus are being phased out completely. They’re going online. Fewer catalogs in the mail mean a greener mail stream.

A secondary benefit of fewer pieces in the mail is felt by my mail carrier, Chris. He’s getting better mileage out of his USPS truck because it’s not weighted down with enormous catalogs printed on hefty 80# gloss stock. As a result, he’s making his rounds faster. So he’s saving gas and getting home earlier in the day. His dog appreciates the extra time with Dad, too.

And that’s just the benefit from just one USPS effort to help us clean up our act! There’s more!

Remember the mandatory NCOA rule that went into effect last November? Suddenly DMers are having their service bureaus--companies similar to Paul & Partners--cleaning their lists religiously, purging bad addresses, eliminating dead wood, reducing the number of pieces going into print and mail.

OK, we should have been doing list hygiene all along, but the USPS-inspired Tough Love has cut the “junk” out of “junk mail.” And that is good.

The USPS is doing its bit internally, too. They are testing a small fleet of hydrogen vehicles. So far the fleet is limited to LA and DC because of the lack of hydrogen sources, but it’s a start.
The USPS is trying to close underutilized facilities to save on utilities, rents, maintenance, and yes, payroll. It’s basic economics, and makes good green sense.

By utilizing automation as much as possible, the USPS is processing mail faster, with fewer humans in the loop. Humans, unlike machinery, demand health care, vacations, breaks, and can only work 8 to 12 hours a day. Machinery is a lot more efficient, and can work 24 hours a day without complaining. That efficiency enhances greenness.

The economy is lending a hand, too. As banks fail and merge, mail dries up. As non-profits sputter to a standstill because they can’t get donations, the mail stops. As retailers and car dealers hang on by their fingernails because no one is shopping, the mail slows. As more people become unemployed and can’t afford to eat out, shop, or replace their old clunkers (if they could find someone to lend them money anyway), they drive fewer miles.

Just before Christmas oil dropped to $39 a barrel for a short time. Did it spur a buying frenzy? Nope. We are just not driving as much as we did. Maybe we can’t afford to do so. Maybe we choose not to do so. But we are indeed changing our ways.

We may be going greener just because we HAVE to. Not because we WANT to.

But whatever the reason, going green is a good thing. Now if we can only remember to sustain the effort once the economy turns around.

Ask the trees and polar bears if going green really matters.